After weeks of bombardment by the United States and Israel, and missile and drone strikes by Iran’s regime, Trump has now placed his foot on the throat of what remains of the regime’s leadership through a naval blockade and is applying pressure, yet he cannot finish off the wounded government. In response, the IRGC is also exerting counterpressure on Trump through the Strait of Hormuz and by driving up oil prices, trying to force him to lift his foot so it can breathe. Beyond this picture, however, there is another reality that is not visible to many: the body of the Iranian people, being crushed beneath the decaying corpse of the regime. Unemployment, homelessness caused by poverty, rising hunger, psychological strain from the current dreadful living conditions, and many other hardships are existential challenges with which Iranian society is grappling beneath it.

Meanwhile, the complex dynamics of neither war nor peace are slowly unfolding. In the latest developments related to the conflict, Araghchi traveled to Islamabad to deliver the regime’s written response to U.S. proposals to mediators. His accompanying delegation remains in Islamabad to bring the results of talks with mediators back to Tehran, while Araghchi, in a diplomatic gesture, as if he had not gone to Pakistan for direct negotiations, heads to Muscat and then Moscow. At the same time, he plans to return to Islamabad on Monday.

Trump, for his part, has canceled the trip of his representatives who were on the verge of traveling to Islamabad. The message from Trump and his Secretary of Defense is that they are in no hurry to negotiate, and that it is Iran’s government that should be concerned about the passage of time. Meanwhile, reports or rumors of divisions within Iran’s leadership, whose original source is unclear, have found their way into Trump’s daily posts on his social media platform. In one of his latest posts, Trump writes, “…Nobody knows who is in charge, including them. Also, we have all the cards, they have none! If thy want to talk, all they have to do is call!!!.”

Over the past decades, Iranian regime has shown a particular skill in turning serious crises into opportunities and using every risk for its survival. Even now, despite its fragile condition and a stalemate in stalemate, meaning a deadlock in the overall course of the war, and a deadlock in decision-making to preserve the regime, despite denials by various officials, it does not appear overly concerned about leaks or perhaps even the deliberate release of internal divisions at the top. The regime understands that Trump’s hope of finding a figure like Delcy Rodríguez of Venezuela within the current ruling structure is not only harmless but also buys time for a severely weakened leadership, so that pressure on the global economy and the approach of U.S. midterm elections might compel Trump to grant concessions. This would allow the regime, after any potential agreement, not merely to continue surviving in its final throes, but also to maintain the satisfaction of its core base and retain at least some prospect of economic recovery. The remnants of the current regime are fully aware that if they cannot meet the people’s basic needs in the short term after the end of the war, they will face immediate public demands whose force would make the threat of American and Israeli bombs and missiles seem insignificant in comparison.