On the third day, the regime’s defenders roam the streets like bewildered orphans, dazed and confused, fearing that opponents of the system might take to the streets and throw what remains of what has already been smashed into the dustbin of history. The dizziness is not confined to the lower ranks of the regime. At the top, too, they are at a loss over what to do after Khamenei.

In an interview, Eje’i (regime’s chief justice) said, “The Temporary Leadership Council fully supports and backs all forces responsible for maintaining public security and the armed forces.” This is precisely tantamount to saying that the Temporary Council does not have the full support of all its remaining armed forces. Meanwhile, Fars News Agency, while practically pleading with people not to leave the streets and urging them to demonstrate their presence by sending photos and videos with a specific hashtag, emphasizes that they should not pay attention to possible desperate and misleading voices emerging from within the system.

At the same time, the wounded remnants of the IRGC are firing missiles in every direction and, with each launch, immediately losing one of their own launchers. A regime that until two years ago was brandishing threats at every country in the region now hangs by a thread. Amid what is described as a shortage of black-turbaned clerics (claimed descendent of prophet Mohammed,) the government has been forced to introduce A’rafi, a white-turbaned cleric, to stand alongside Larijani and Eje’i to boost the morale of regime supporters. Pezeshkian’s current role appears to confirm Khatami’s remark that, in the Islamic Republic, the president is no more than a “server.” Whether the regime’s supporters, under bombardment, would accept A’rafi (if introduced as Supreme Leader) remains an open question.

On the other side, the United States and Israel are reportedly targeting, one by one, Basij bases, police stations, IRGC headquarters, and the safe houses and secret facilities of the Intelligence Ministry in neighborhoods across Tehran and other cities. The IRGC is housing its armed, fugitive forces in religious lodges and schools. The regime had previously emptied weapons from barracks and Basij and IRGC bases to prevent them from falling into the hands of the public.

On the third day, the remaining IRGC missile fire has also managed to inflict blows on Arab countries and Israeli cities. The American embassy in Riyadh was reportedly targeted by two IRGC drones. The regime’s remaining hope lies in causing American casualties, disrupting daily life in the Arab countries of the Persian Gulf, and generating domestic pressure on Trump to halt the attacks and declare a ceasefire, an outcome that, if realized, would be seen as just as much of a defeat for Trump in the United States.

Another significant development on the third day was the announcement of a phone call between Trump and Kurdish leaders in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq (Barzani and Talabani), which sparked speculation and intense discussion among the Iranian opposition and across social media. Speculation that the United States and Israel might support Iranian Kurdish political forces in the continuation of the war that began three days ago alarmed monarchists while encouraging pro-democracy forces on the political scene. Apparently, in the current deadlock, marked by the absence of forces capable of finishing the regime on the ground, many view Iranian Kurdistan as the only real and viable option at present. However, such speculation may be premature, as various factors could obstruct this path, which will be addressed in the future. The more important question, however, is whether Trump’s apparent gesture of support for Kurdistan is merely intended to push the regime’s remnants toward surrender, not to step aside, but to negotiate, or whether the United States and Israel are truly prepared to go all the way for regime change.