Following reports yesterday of Trump’s phone conversation with the leaders of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, today CNN, citing officials from the Trump administration, reported that the U.S. president also spoke by phone with Mustafa Hijri, Secretary-General of the Democratic Party of Iranian Kurdistan (KDPI). A few hours earlier, in response to a journalist’s question about Reza Pahlavi, Trump stated that he is looking for leaders inside Iran.

Trump’s positions on the fourth day regarding the future of the war and Iran poured cold water on monarchists and effectively nullified the discourse of monarchy and, overall, Reza Pahlavi’s alternative. Taking such a clear and significant stance stems from Trump’s need for a realistic outlook to bring the Iranian government’s chapter to a close. Trump, who fundamentally has not planned for prolonged involvement in any confrontation, is under intense pressure at home from his MAGA base, which sent him to the White House under the slogan “America First.” Having failed to find a figure within the regime willing to negotiate (like Venezuela’s Delcy Rodríguez), he knows he cannot rely on the opposition abroad. Meanwhile, the decline of the New York stock market, something the U.S. president closely watches, along with explicit opposition from Democrats, are additional obstacles to continuing the war.

For the political forces of Iranian Kurdistan, taking advantage of the current conditions also comes with numerous challenges. Securing a genuine and reliable commitment from the United States not to abandon Iranian Kurdish parties, whether in the event the remnants of the regime surrender to survive, change course, or turn against them in other scenarios, as happened in Syria, is an issue that requires serious consideration. On the other hand, the dissatisfaction of Turkey, and even the central governments of Iraq and Syria, with Trump’s move could activate multiple lobbying efforts in Washington against such a decision. Nevertheless, Trump’s urgent need for a dependable force to end the current complicated situation, or at least create a scenario in which the United States would be responsible only for air and logistical support to opposition forces in the medium term, opens the way for Iranian Kurdish parties. Their current capital is not merely a limited number of Peshmerga stationed across the border, but also their organic ties with the people of Iranian Kurdistan, enabling them to rapidly fill military ranks when the moment arrives. Additionally, having a rear base support such as the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, aligned with U.S. and Israeli policies, represents significant strength and capital for an alliance with Iranian Kurdish political forces.

Trump’s team and advisers are well aware that the regime ruling Iran will not collapse because of celebrations by Iranians abroad, even in the thousands, nor through Reza Pahlavi’s hollow slogans, nor through gatherings of republican groups abroad issuing various statements. The United States needs forces capable of utilizing the weapons, air support, and power it has deployed to the region in order to push the government back.

On the Iranian government’s side, despite earlier statements that the third leader of the Islamic Republic would be introduced next week, on the fourth day rumors of the selection of Mojtaba Khamenei spread widely across social media and Western press outlets. This news has not yet been officially announced through government channels, and it appears that the regime itself may have leaked it abroad to test public opinion. It seems that the perceived advantage of promoting the son of a “martyred descendant of the Prophet” has outweighed introducing a white-turban cleric (a non-sayyid).

Additionally, on the fourth day the number of missile launches by the Revolutionary Guard was lower than the previous day. Analysts attribute the reduction in missile launches to explosions and the loss of launch platforms.