On the day the Tehran Bazaar shut down and protesters took to the streets, the prices of goods had already tripled. In the days that followed, the protests continued, and as people in Iran and around the world witnessed, the regime carried out brutal massacres on the 18th and 19th of Dey through its various layers of repression.

According to the Newton’s third law, whenever one object exerts a force on another object, the second object exerts an equal and opposite on the first.  Although social laws do not exactly follow the rules of physics, the outcomes of scientific laws can nevertheless be observed to a significant extent in social collisions as well. The scale of the clash that occurred between the people and the government during the nationwide protests in January 2026 has undoubtedly had profound effects on both sides. It is still too soon to judge the direction, magnitude, and ultimate consequences of this momentum and energy.

Several days after the horrific crimes in which thousands were killed across cities by regime’s security forces, society is now in a state of shock, mourning, and burying its dead. At the same time, the anger and energy generated by this collision are being added to other unresolved demands and long-accumulated grievances. The wounded, those shot and those whose eyes and bodies were torn by pellets, are being treated in homes instead of hospitals, or are simply carrying their injuries with them in fear of being arrested. Meanwhile, prices have not declined since the protests began; they have risen even further. After the burials and the removal of pellets from bodies, people will once again struggle to resume daily life, only to face a system that is no longer capable of meeting even the most basic needs, operating at less than a tenth of the already dysfunctional capacity it had before the protests. These needs are no longer limited to the financial ability to secure basic necessities or access to the internet (even at pre-protest levels) for livelihoods. Rather, all the components and mechanisms that once kept the daily cycle of life turning, even imperfectly, have been thrown into disarray.

The momentum generated by this massive collision has not affected only one side (the people) but has also struck the opposing body, the regime, shaking it to its core. By committing crimes on a maximum scale, the government aimed to terrify the population and send a warning to the younger generation that any future protest would be met with an iron fist. Yet it should not be overlooked that, in doing so, the system itself came closer than ever before in its history to witnessing its own downfall. The effects of this shock and the trembling of the regime’s foundations became clearly visible in the global response.

The European Union concluded that this regime no longer has a future and stated this openly. Across the Atlantic, the sword of Damocles still hangs over the Iran’s regime by the United States. The regime’s economic system has neither the capacity nor a plan to provide even minimum livelihoods for the population, and has not even begun to think about one. Haunted by the specter of overthrow, the government continues to raid homes, hunt down protesters, and arrest young people. The system knows its ship of governance has been breached and fears that high-ranking figures will abandon ship and defect to the American camp to save themselves. Khamenei, as the central pillar of the regime, understands better than anyone that both insiders and outsiders are waiting for his departure. This pressure further amplifies the momentum generated by the collision, increasing day by day.

In the absence of a broad, democracy-seeking alternative, predicting the course of events is not easy. Khamenei knows that his regime will not collapse through American airstrikes, but the growing internal and external pressure, combined with the complete absence of viable solutions, has left him, like Julius Caesar, increasingly fearful of the dagger of his own companions plunging into his back.

On the other side stand a people who must continue living, and who see the continuation of life in every small aspect of existence as possible only by moving beyond the current system. They are preparing themselves for the next confrontation, drawing on all past experience. A population that fought the regime tooth and nail during those bloody days will no longer accept the false claims broadcast by far-right megaphones about tens of thousands of imaginary military forces siding with the government. This wounded and oppressed people, carrying a heavy burden of experience, will rise using every available internal and external means to bring Khamenei down from the seat of power. The sea of blood that has been unleashed leaves no room for preserving the existing system, whether with Khamenei or without him.