Few important points about the future of Iran protests

January 15, 2018

Khamenei’s speech on Jan. 9, 2018, has once again shown that the regime is not retreating and cannot be reformed. Such hope like holding a referendum under the United Nations supervision is more a dream than a reality.

Now, let’s see how the regime can manage the protests, which started in last days of 2017. These protests are completely different from the last massive anti-government demonstrations in large cities in 2009. This time around, it basically shook the regime from top to the bottom which its consequences certainly will affect the political power structure in near future. Last time, the subject was “where is my vote” under the leadership of Mir Hossein, a reformist who disappointed people and devolved their demands over to the golden age of the Khomeini. This time, the matter is hunger, money, and people’s day to day life that the government cannot offer any solution.

So far, according to official reports, 4,000 people have been arrested, five protesters(possibly more) were murdered in the prison and 30+ people were killed by security forces direct shooting on the streets. Protests were more intense in places like the little towns that had been said were more loyal to hardliners. In cities like Ahvaz, Khorramabad, Kermanshah, and Durood, people are really deprived and desperate where they have no way to live near to a normal life. In Khuzestan province, especially Ahwaz, people deal with the worst case of environmental disasters such as air and water pollution.

In case of relative success by the regime to suppress the protests, the real solution depends on the allocation of a decent budget for unpaid salaries and welfare which are impossible because government reserves are simply depleted. A financial remedy is impossible because the regime has to fight in Syria, Iraq, and Yemen. In case of any capital reallocation from regional aggression to internal affairs, regime’s war machine will be stalled in the Middle East. Ruling theocracy cannot retreat either inside or outside of Iran. Each of these two will quickly lead to a fall.

Back on the streets, people’s morale to protest has risen so high that it’s very hard to be crushed. In addition to all protests across the country, people dared to hold a major demonstration in front of the infamous Evin prison, with the slogan of “political prisoners must be free.” In general, if we do not see such demonstrations on the streets or relatively scattered these days, it does not mean that the army of deprived moved back from their demands. For the regime, the solution is a quick injection of foreign investment that not only is irrelevant now but also the possibility of more sanctions is on the way.

The main issue is that this regime is bankrupt economically. Mullahs are ruthless and corrupt, not stupid. If they had financial resources, they wouldn’t let the crisis evolve to this point. Corruption and frauds were so horrible among regime’s top ranking officials that some oil rigs were lost in the past. But in addition to 40 years of mismanagement and corruption, the root of economic problems lies somewhere else. The real problem is the expenses of Iran proxies in the Middle East such as Fatemiyoun, Zeinabioun brigade, Hezbollah, Houthis, Hashd al Sha’bi, and dozens of other militia groups devour at least $ 25 billion annually. Other than that, the cost of Islamic propaganda machine must be added to the burden. The Al-Mustafa community is a sample of this propaganda. It’s a mullahs’ exports program to all African, Latin American, and European countries. Furthur more, the regime runs a media empire abroad such as radio and television networks for all those countries with staff and journalists, and so on. In summary, the solution to all these problems is money that the regime does not have and is unable to raise through foreign investments.

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